NFL 2013 Season Wildcard Weekend Picks

	Scott - Resident Tech Support 01/02/2014 @ 08:08:58 AM
The high temperature in Green Bay on Sunday is forecasted to be 0, low is -18. Going to be a cold one. Edit: AccuWeather shows -5/-20 for GB on Sunday. This just keeps getting better.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Scott perfected this at 01/02/2014 9:00:54 am

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/02/2014 @ 12:17:06 PM
With the news that the Bears have signed Jay Cutler has signed for 7 more years, there might finally be evidence to the claim that the Packers are one of the more "lucky" teams in the NFL. I mean, with a career record of 1-8 against the Packers, the Bears might as well just play their backup punter at QB to avoid Cutler getting hurt in a fruitless game.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Scott edited this 2 times, last at 01/02/2014 12:25:37 pm

	Scott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings 01/06/2014 @ 12:45:45 PM
It was certainly cold, but it wasn't as cold as some of the forecasts were predicting. I think gametime temperature was around 5 degrees; however the windchills were in the area of -20. They really dodged a bullet, though, because today in Green Bay the actual temperature now at 12:40 pm is -16 with a windchill of -45. Knowing what we know now about the cold and the effects it has on the body (compared to what we knew in 1982 or 1967), I wonder had the gametime temperature been -45 windchill if they would have proceeded with the game, or if they would have tried to play it the next day. It was cold though. I had every inch of my face covered most of the game, (along with all my regular cold weather gear), with 4 sets of hand/body warmers going the entire game. And the stadium gave away free hot chocolate the entire game, so that helped too. Playoff football, though, is a different experience live than regular season. The game was so close, if Micah Hyde holds on to that interception late in the 4th qtr, the national converstation today is probably about how resilient the Packers team is with all their injuries, and not how Kaepernick continues to have the Packers' number.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Alex - I don't need to get steady I know just how I feel 01/06/2014 @ 01:02:46 PM
I've not been on the fire Capers bandwagon before, but now it's time.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/06/2014 @ 03:08:57 PM
There was an article in the Milwaukee Journal this week talking about Capers rise from the Dick Lebeau school of defensive gameplanning. Lebeau had a philosophy that basically involved never (or rarely) playing rookies. He felt that his defense was too complicated for rookies to figure out. So mix in the Packers philosophy of youth with a defensive coordinator whose gameplan apparently depends on veterans and you end up with a mismatch in personnel. The 2010 Packers who ranked 2nd in scoring defense and near the top in yards allowed had a mix of youth (Raji, Matthews, Williams), but also had a sold group of veterans (Jenkins, Woodson, Pickett). Capers' system might be able to flourish again within a year or two once (or if) the last 2 draft classes of defensive players develops more, but it's possible that either the Packers have to bring in a defensive coordinator who can put in a system to utilize the players he has available to him, or the Packers need to play the free agent market this year to find a couple of good defensive players that can help lead the Capers defensive system. I don't know the answer to this question.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Scott edited this 2 times, last at 01/06/2014 3:10:39 pm

	Alex - I was too weak to give in Too strong to lose 01/06/2014 @ 04:53:13 PM
Well certainly all their injuries didn't help. And according to Aikman, Jarret Bush screwed up by losing containment on the last long run by Kaepernick. Which yet again begs the question of how is Bush still on the team (8 years!)? But when the QB keeps burning you with runs, you have to spy him or call more zone coverage or do something differently. Something besides blitz 6 players who all run right past the QB who then has 20 yards of space in front of him.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/06/2014 @ 08:11:36 PM
Jarett Bush: dirt cheap, terrific gunner on special teams, and usually adequate (at best) as a dime back. As some point though you'd think is time would come, but he must be beating out some of the I drafted free agent rookies each year, otherwise he probably wouldn't be on the team.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/07/2014 @ 09:32:17 AM
Also, if a Jarrett Bush breaks contain (or anyone for that matter) allowing a Kaepernick to break away, that isn't a system problem, that's a player not executing problem. Kaepernick only had 7 official rushing attempts, one of which was a passing play scramble that resulted in a 40 yard scramble. So on 6 other scrambles he gained a total of 56 yards, which probably isn't all that terrible all things considered. I don't know that it would be accurate to say that Kaepernick blasted the Packers with his legs. I'm not sure how many designed run-option plays they ran, but I felt like on those plays the Packers contained him pretty well. And they can't play zone on every down. My guess is that he probably just exploited a small handful of plays when the Packers in in man coverage. Kaepernick's rushing attempts resulted in -4, 1, 8, 42, 16, 24, and 11 yards. The 42 yarder and 24 yarder I know for certain were on passing attempts where he scrambled. I'm not really sure what these numbers mean. He had only had 2 plays where he gained more than 20 yards. I thought the difference in the game was the 42 and 24 yard scrambles, both of which setup up touchdowns. I'm not smart enough to know this for sure, but I don't know if you look at 2 plays like that and change your defensive gameplan to combat the potential. But maybe you do.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Scott screwed with this at 01/07/2014 10:03:05 am

	Scott - On your mark...get set...Terrible! 01/07/2014 @ 10:02:34 AM
Apparently Bob McGinn saw the same thing that Aikman saw on the last Kaepernick scramble: When Capers rushed seven for the first time since Game 7, the blitzing Bush (10) committed the cardinal sin of giving up the outside on Kaepernick's 11-yard burst on third and 8. It was a horrible mental error. Read more from Journal Sentinel: http://www.jsonline.com/tablet/sports/rating-the-packers-vs-49ers-b99178387z1-238999221.html#ixzz2pjGZIYEV Follow us: @JournalSentinel on Twitter		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Scott edited this at 01/07/2014 10:04:48 am

	Alex - 3619 Posts 01/07/2014 @ 01:19:51 PM
Well Capers has had however many years he has been there to tell Thompson that Bush stinks. And it was Kaepernick's highest rushing total of the season.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/07/2014 @ 02:37:40 PM
Alex Wrote - Today @ 01:19:51 PM And it was Kaepernick's highest rushing total of the season. I know, but it was only his 5th highest attempts total of the season. I just took exception with the "keeps burning you" comment. He burned them basically twice (the 42 and 24 yarder). I don't know if an 11 yarder, even if it was because of broken containment, is considered a "burn" (the fact that it happened because of broken containment suggests that the scheme to address the issue was correct, but the execution was bad). Take away the outlier (the 42 yarder) and he had 6 carries for 56 yards, which is pretty much inline (albeit on the high end) with his season totals. You won't get much argument from me about Bush, other than he's not on the team because of his dashing good looks. If there were guys available better than him that were available, he'd probably be in a different line of work. If they get rid of him just for the sake of getting rid of him, then it'd probably be someone else getting burned by a fleet-footed qb in a do-or-die situation. Bush, while used sparingly, has come up with some pretty good plays throughout his career.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Scott messed with this at 01/07/2014 2:49:32 pm

	Alex - 3619 Posts 01/08/2014 @ 12:59:04 PM
Scott Wrote - Yesterday @ 02:37:40 PM Alex Wrote - Yesterday @ 01:19:51 PM And it was Kaepernick's highest rushing total of the season. I know, but it was only his 5th highest attempts total of the season. That kind of makes it worse. Scott Wrote - Yesterday @ 02:37:40 PM I just took exception with the "keeps burning you" comment. I meant more that he's almost single handedly won the last three games between the two teams.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Jeremy - 9543 Posts 01/08/2014 @ 03:17:43 PM
Yeah, I didn't really leave that game with the impression "Kap ran all over them" (season high or not). It was just back breaking when he did.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - Resident Tech Support 01/08/2014 @ 09:32:41 PM
I probably shouldn't do this for my own mental health, but I rewatched the game, and spent a considerable amount of time watching the last scramble by Kaepernick. On that play, the Packers blitzed 7, as McGinn noted. Now I'm going to assume a couple of things, because I know I don't know for certain what everyone's assignment is. But, my guess when you blitz 7 that it isn't a "just meet at the QB" call. My guess is that each blitzer is responsible for a particular lane or area of the field. Jarrett Bush came from the right end, Nick Perry came from left, and Andy Mulumba and AJ Hawk came from the middle, both a little bit delayed. Hawk got tied up, Perry made his way around the end, and Bush came around his end. Mulumba looked like he was deliberately hovering around the line of scrimmage, possibly in a spying mode. My guess again is that Bush's job, if it isn't a 100% sure sack, is to make sure that Kaep doesn't get outside. His job is to force Kaep, if he is going to bolt, to go up the middle where Mulumba is waiting for him. Bush, however, jumps on the pump fake, then gets completely tangled and whipped by the blocking back. Kaepernick gets around bush, and the tight man-to-man coverage that is required when you blitz 7 left a wide open hole where Bush should have been. So the play called was picture perfect. The execution by one player was completely blown. Although it's also completely possible that Mulumba was just standing around like an idiot when he should have blown through the open lane he had and blasted Kaep before he had a chance to beat Bush's blown assignment.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Jeremy - 9543 Posts 01/09/2014 @ 09:18:42 AM
Also you could make a case that if a defensive play call completely breaks down if a single one of the 7 out of 11 guys you put on the QB, who will all be being blocked by large men who themselves want to push them to different areas, is 2 feet too far in one direction or the other, that it ISN'T in fact a "picture perfect" call. Also, to be fair to Bush, he didn't exactly "bite on a pump fake". There was a guy there and open. Kaepernick probably had every intention of throwing that there had Bush not, at least temporarily, bought the defense a second shot at a stop. Not to mention the entire rest of the line was over stacked on the other side, basically leaving Bush as a one man contain for the entire left half of the field. Bush is screwed no matter what way he goes, in fact running around Gore to the outside as everyone is (largely assuming) he was supposed to, might have even been a more inviting running lane. I don't know what the play call was, but if it was indeed "contain Kap at all costs" then it was a terrible play design, or more than Bush efed up. At the moment of truth it almost looks like a defensive play call designed to make Kap flush out to the left. Picture the image below with Bush on the other side of Gore, or vertical with Gore, keeping in mind the "jump inside" is the only reason Bush is even that close to Kap and the "other half" in the first place, and the Packers did everything on that play but put one of those airplane directing guys out there to point out the perfect runway they built for him to run for the first down. At least this way he still had to actually run around Bush. There's no one I see "waiting for him", everyone else got walled off or is in no position to make a play on anything. Even with them having spied on him with the world's slowest linebacker, he would have had to avoid getting swept up in the blocking, and I'll take Kap getting 6 yards before that guy gets 5 with a side step and the "he can still throw" hesitation. Long story short, if one blitzing DB is essentially responsible for an entire half of the field, at the line, and as it turned out, otherwise, I don't think you can get too pissed at him when that doesn't work. Especially when he, at least temporarily, made a play. Either way I certainly don't think you can call that a "picture perfect" call, it basically ensured exactly what happened happened.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Jeremy edited this 11 times, last at 01/09/2014 9:54:46 am

	Jeremy - 9543 Posts 01/09/2014 @ 09:24:02 AM
		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Jeremy - Robots don't say 'ye' 01/09/2014 @ 09:49:10 AM
Those came from here: http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/1/8/5219122/colin-kaepernick-all-22-49ers-vs-packers		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Scott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings 01/09/2014 @ 10:44:59 AM
I've never heard an analyst say "that blitzer did a wonderful job of leaving his feet to defend a pass at the line of scrimmage", especially when that player knows that there is no one on the field to bail him out. Bush lept into the air, completely taking himself out of the play. I agree that Bush probably prevented the throw, but just putting your hands up could be enough to disuade the throw (but even still, when your two jobs involve a) sack the QB and b) if you can't sack him then DO NOT let him get him outside of you, batting down a pass should not be done in such a way to prevent you from executing your 2 primary jobs). Also, the cornerback at the top of the screen had decent enough coverage on the WR that if Kaepernick does complete that pass anyway, it is possibly incomplete, and at worst, the receiver is tackled about 4 yards short of the first down marker. So yes, I still put a lot of blame on Bush for the breakdown of that play. Everybody has a job to do, and Bush appeared to not do his. It might have been a bit of an exaggeration to call it "picture perfect", but if Bush keeps himself in that play, the worst thing that happens is probably a completion and tackle at the 33 yard line. Look, it's a call that has a certain degree of risk involved no doubt, but that risk is magnified when players don't have the discipline to execute their job. *the guy who eventually ran him out of bounds (Mulumba) wasn't engaged with a blocker (Gore might have been his guy). From the TV angle from behind the line of scrimmage, it is a lot easier to see that. The play happened so quickly, so it wasn't like he was having a sandwich waiting for him. If Bush forces Kaep to go inside of him instead of around the end, he probably has no lane to run left, or if he does, he has to maneuver more and avoid even his own linemen, possibly allowing for Bush, or anyone, to close in before Kaep gets around the edge.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Scott edited this 5 times, last at 01/09/2014 11:38:59 am

	Scott - 6225 Posts 01/09/2014 @ 11:26:16 AM
At the very worst, the play call my be questionable considering the players asked to execute it. Mulumba, playing because of injury to being with, had a bum knee from earlier in the game and couldn't run very well. And Bush doesn't have a strong history of making well-executed smart plays. He's a career dime-back/special teams player for a reason. Anyway, lots of plays are called all the time where certain the success or total breakdown depends on players executing properly.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Scott messed with this at 01/09/2014 11:27:53 am

	Alex - 3619 Posts 01/09/2014 @ 01:21:05 PM
If Bush stays outside, Kaepernick still has all day in the pocket against a 7 man blitz. There's your problem.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.

	Jeremy - 9543 Posts 01/09/2014 @ 03:45:15 PM
And as long as we're playing the "what if" game on the throw: since the db is breaking toward the line a well thrown ball was one semi out of position whiffed tackle from being a TD. The spy isn't blocked, no, but that doesn't mean he can just pass through guys that are being blocked like ghost dad. Put it this way, if Bush stays there Kap has a nice direct lane with all his blockers walling off 5 of the 6 other defenders, and are enough in the way of the spy to prevent him from taking a direct route to the sideline. Seeing how ridiculously foolish he looked trying to run 20 yards before Kap ran 35 I'm thinking Kap gets by him either way. On the flip side, if he doesn't run there, you have to have 7 of your 11 guys doing more than "make sure this guy can't run". Especially sending 6 of those 7 to protect the right side and leaving the left side all up to a blitzing DB. I don't think this will be used as a text book example of what a blitzing DB should do when he gets picked up, but seeing as Bush was asked to do the nearly impossible, and, contrary to this belief that he "bit" on some obvious fake, he actually was the only Packer on the play that made any kind of a play, I think the reaction to him is a little over the top. If you had anyone else, such as the spy whose sole job it was to prevent running, anywhere near the left side of the play Bush's play saves the day. It's possible Bush was told "now you are literally the only line of defense against Kap doing anything to his left, so for the love of God stay outside", and had a mental breakdown on the play, but I put that on the play call no matter how you slice it. It was a bad play all around that was basically "let's hope they forget to block Bush or we're boned." You have to get home with someone when you blitz 7 guys. Worst case scenario you have to have a much better contain than "Well, Bush will have this whole half of the field taken away, so 3 of you stand on the same blade of grass down here near the other 3. " You were man up on 4 WR and 7 people got stymied near the line, if Bush stays where (we're all assuming) he was supposed to. 7 walled off defenders while Kap has all day to find the guy that can ditch his man. That play was doomed. Bush at least gave someone else an extra second to do anything but stand there. Letting Kap run there isn't even the worst thing if the play call didn't scheme half the defense into irrelevancy. If there is one green shirt on that half of the planet earth a run probably does less or as much damage as the throw Bush prevented.		Rate this comment Yours: Rated 0 times.
Jeremy screwed with this 8 times, last at 01/09/2014 4:09:12 pm