NFL 2012 Season Week 6 Picks
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Week: | 7 - 7 0.500 |
Season: | 57 - 34 0.626 |
Lifetime: | 1067 - 620 0.632 |
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Week: | 6 - 8 0.429 |
Season: | 55 - 36 0.604 |
Lifetime: | 1043 - 647 0.617 |
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Week: | 7 - 7 0.500 |
Season: | 43 - 29 0.597 |
Lifetime: | 348 - 237 0.595 |
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Week: | 8 - 6 0.571 |
Season: | 57 - 34 0.626 |
Lifetime: | 844 - 509 0.624 |
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Week: | 3 - 11 0.214 |
Season: | 48 - 42 0.533 |
Lifetime: | 194 - 124 0.610 |
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Week: | 4 - 10 0.286 |
Season: | 49 - 42 0.538 |
Lifetime: | 544 - 347 0.611 |
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Week: | 8 - 6 0.571 |
Season: | 47 - 28 0.627 |
Lifetime: | 508 - 274 0.650 |
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Week: | 4 - 10 0.286 |
Season: | 57 - 32 0.640 |
Lifetime: | 330 - 205 0.617 |
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Week: | 7 - 7 0.500 |
Season: | 51 - 40 0.560 |
Lifetime: | 395 - 230 0.632 |
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Week: | 6 - 8 0.429 |
Season: | 50 - 41 0.549 |
Lifetime: | 314 - 208 0.602 |
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Week: | 4 - 10 0.286 |
Season: | 53 - 38 0.582 |
Lifetime: | 306 - 173 0.639 |
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Week: | 2 - 12 0.143 |
Season: | 44 - 34 0.564 |
Lifetime: | 188 - 124 0.603 |
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Week: | 6 - 8 0.429 |
Season: | 52 - 39 0.571 |
Lifetime: | 66 - 53 0.555 |
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Week: | 7 - 7 0.500 |
Season: | 53 - 38 0.582 |
Lifetime: | 53 - 38 0.582 |
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Vikings 26 @ Commanders 38 |
JonRGIII is a wildcard. Not sure how the Vikings defense will do against him. Ponder should be able to throw on them though. Hopefully the Vikings keep rolling. Also, Percy Harvin is ridiculously talented. | |
SarahIt appears that I've decided to go with all home teams except two. Maybe that'll work better than last week's strategy. | |
JeremyOne reason for pessimism about the Vikings so far: Outside of one legitimate top to bottom beat down of the 49ers, the Vikings really haven't played all that well in any game thus far. They're not winning, so much as just not losing.One reason for optimism about the Vikings so far: Outside of one legitimate top to bottom beat down of the 49ers, the Vikings really haven't played all that well in any game thus far...and they're still 3-1 in those games. Their only loss, to Caveman Lawyer and his fellow Colts, was almost entirely self inflicted, and even that came down to the wire. I don't know what to make of them, but so far I'm leaning toward it being an illusion. |
Packers 42 @ Texans 24 |
JonI got the Packers here. Houston is definitely a good team, but they haven't had the toughest schedule either. Packers have looked pretty bad at times, but they beat a tough Bears defense. Then again, Houston has a tough D and also doesn't throw interceptions and the Packers will be without Benson, so maybe Houston will crush the Packers. But I already made my pick. | |
SarahThe Pack have not looked good YTD, not good at all. | |
JeremyThe Packers will win this by 30, just because it would figure. |
Broncos 35 @ Chargers 24 |
JonI debated about this one for awhile. There were some tough games to pick this week. I feel like a lot of people are hoping that Denver is good and that may or may not be the case. Still, I think the Charges D is beatable enough for Manning to do something. | |
SarahMeh. | |
JeremyPunt. |
Scott - No, I did not change your screen saver settings 10/10/2012 @ 10:09:17 AM |
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I actually fully endorse Jeremy's comments regarding the Packers-Texans game, even in the spirit in which he said it. They can't put together a complete game against pretty much any team they've played so far, so of course playing a 5-0 team on the road would be the appropriate time to put it all together. The big difference between this Packers team and last year's team? They didn't have a running back last year. Now that Benson is likely out for the season, they can drop the "we're a balanced offense" charade and just throw the ball 53 times this week. |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 10:27:52 AM |
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Jeremy, what does your penalty tracker say so far this year? Where do the Packers stand in terms of penalties committed? |
Jeremy - Broadcast in stunning 1080i 10/10/2012 @ 12:36:01 PM |
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It says "this project has been abandoned" |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 12:46:50 PM |
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Tied for 6th at 20, assuming of course this thing still, or ever, works for shit. (Which it isn't, because that's just the last 2 games, and other teams have more games. So assuming what it has for the games it has is right, the Packers are in 6th with just 2 games, behind some teams that have 4. Which doesn't bode well. Of course many of the teams behind them with 1-2 games could pass them as well. Maybe I'll revive the project.) |
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Jeremy perfected this 3 times, last at 10/10/2012 1:36:40 pm |
Alex - 3619 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 01:20:05 PM |
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 10:09:17 AM Now that Benson is likely out for the season, they can drop the "we're a balanced offense" charade and just throw the ball 53 times this week. Um...have you seen the offensive line's pass protection? I fail to see how this would be a good thing. What I want to know is what happened to the short slants? Seems like they've only thrown 1 per game so far, and other than that Rodgers is always looking 20 yards down field and taking 10s to get rid of the ball. |
Jeremy - 1.21 Gigawatts!?!? 10/10/2012 @ 01:26:38 PM |
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Yeah, I had caught wind of the fact that Rodgers wasn't getting very good protection, but I did a double take the other day when I was looking up Ponder's stats and saw that he has been sacked 9 times, and that Rodgers was at 21. It's amazing what a difference adding/subtracting a little time can make. |
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Jeremy perfected this at 10/10/2012 1:26:46 pm |
Scott - If you aren't enough without it, you'll never be enough with it. 10/10/2012 @ 01:36:17 PM |
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Jeremy Wrote - Today @ 12:46:50 PM Tied for 6th at 20, assuming of course this thing still, or ever, works for shit. (Which it isn't, because that's just the last 2 games, and other teams have more games. Maybe I'll revive the project.) I only ask to verify something from a Milwaukee Journal article this morning. The Packers are 4th for most penalties committed (not counting declined penalties) and 1st in most yardage given up. |
Jeremy - No one's gay for Moleman 10/10/2012 @ 01:38:03 PM |
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That will be a good data point to validate off of, if I bother to revive it. |
Scott - On your mark...get set...Terrible! 10/10/2012 @ 01:38:51 PM |
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Alex Wrote - Today @ 01:20:05 PM Scott Wrote - Today @ 10:09:17 AM Um...have you seen the offensive line's pass protection? I fail to see how this would be a good thing. What I want to know is what happened to the short slants? Seems like they've only thrown 1 per game so far, and other than that Rodgers is always looking 20 yards down field and taking 10s to get rid of the ball.Now that Benson is likely out for the season, they can drop the "we're a balanced offense" charade and just throw the ball 53 times this week. I'm not sure if my sarcasm came across or not. I wasn't necessarily suggesting that somehow the addition of Benson dragged down the offense. It was more tongue in cheek, since last year they didn't have a running game and were virtually unstoppable, and this year they have a running game and are 2-3. Obviously (sarcasm alert) the balanced running game is the reason they aren't 5-0. |
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Scott edited this at 10/10/2012 1:39:20 pm |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 01:41:03 PM |
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Also, I have no idea what QBR is, but higher is good, and Ponder is soundly beating Rodgers in it, so I declare it the new golden standard of rating quarterbacks. |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 01:49:05 PM |
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QBR is similar to WAR (at least in spirit). It has to do with a QB's overall impact on a game. It puts more emphasis on subjective game conditions, like what the score is when that play was made, or what the score was AND how much time was left. It also doesn't just measure the passing aspect of a QB. Any plays involving the QB are considered. |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 01:49:30 PM |
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Well, to be fair, your half joking commentary isn't ridiculous. Sometimes teams do things they think they're supposed to do, rather than the things they're best at. People will make comments like "man can you imagine that [awesome passing attack offense] if they had a running game too!" but they forget to factor that, to some extent, one comes at the expense of the other. It's not a zero sum thing, obviously, because a better offense will extend drives, and get more plays for both facets, but there's still some cannibalization going on. Even if Benson was averaging good numbers, who knows what those numbers come at the expense of. |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 01:51:26 PM |
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I think that's fair. I was only half-joking, which means I'm also half-somewhat-serious. The Packers offensive line wasn't amazing last year either. They also have been missing Greg Jennings most of the year so far, and Donald Driver is basically an empty uniform (he plays about 7 snaps per game). So a position that last year was their greatest strength has now been whittled down to Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb. All three are pretty good receivers, but their value was enhanced by being a part of a receiving corps that was overflowing with talent (and numbers). Now that there are only 3 of them (throw in Jermichael Butterfingers McGee for good measure too, i guess), their value is somewhat diminished. | ||
Scott edited this 4 times, last at 10/10/2012 1:55:30 pm |
Alex - But let history remember, that as free men, we chose to make it so! 10/10/2012 @ 08:03:33 PM |
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 01:49:05 PM QBR is similar to WAR (at least in spirit). It has to do with a QB's overall impact on a game. It puts more emphasis on subjective game conditions, like what the score is when that play was made, or what the score was AND how much time was left. It also doesn't just measure the passing aspect of a QB. Any plays involving the QB are considered. WAR is situation independent, so really not all that similar. WAR doesn't care if a HR came in a 20-0 blowout or if it was a walk off, it's just a HR. QBR is more like WPA. |
Alex - 3619 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 08:21:02 PM |
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 01:51:26 PM I think that's fair. I was only half-joking, which means I'm also half-somewhat-serious. The Packers offensive line wasn't amazing last year either. They also have been missing Greg Jennings most of the year so far, and Donald Driver is basically an empty uniform (he plays about 7 snaps per game). So a position that last year was their greatest strength has now been whittled down to Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb. All three are pretty good receivers, but their value was enhanced by being a part of a receiving corps that was overflowing with talent (and numbers). Now that there are only 3 of them (throw in Jermichael Butterfingers McGee for good measure too, i guess), their value is somewhat diminished. As long as we're talking about QBR, Rodgers had -19.0 SACK EPA last year. I don't honestly know exactly what that means but it seems to more or less be a counting stat based on comparing current 2012 numbers to 2011 final numbers. I guess this is the glossary definition: SACK EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added (lost) on sacks. So again -19.0 for all of 2011, -17.7 already in 5 games this year. Sacks are killing the offense. Nelson has as many drops as Finley. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232 |
Alex - Ignorance is bliss to those uneducated 10/10/2012 @ 08:26:08 PM |
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Packers only at 52.4% playoff odds. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds |
Alex - You've got to trust your instinct, and let go of regret 10/10/2012 @ 08:30:26 PM |
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 01:38:51 PM Alex Wrote - Today @ 01:20:05 PM Scott Wrote - Today @ 10:09:17 AM Um...have you seen the offensive line's pass protection? I fail to see how this would be a good thing. What I want to know is what happened to the short slants? Seems like they've only thrown 1 per game so far, and other than that Rodgers is always looking 20 yards down field and taking 10s to get rid of the ball.Now that Benson is likely out for the season, they can drop the "we're a balanced offense" charade and just throw the ball 53 times this week. I'm not sure if my sarcasm came across or not. I wasn't necessarily suggesting that somehow the addition of Benson dragged down the offense. It was more tongue in cheek, since last year they didn't have a running game and were virtually unstoppable, and this year they have a running game and are 2-3. Obviously (sarcasm alert) the balanced running game is the reason they aren't 5-0. Sarcasm works really well at 50% joking/seriousness. Packers have compiled the 6th ranked rush offense and are 9th in pass offense. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff 31st in pass protection http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/10/2012 @ 10:17:56 PM |
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 01:36:17 PM Jeremy Wrote - Today @ 12:46:50 PM Tied for 6th at 20, assuming of course this thing still, or ever, works for shit. (Which it isn't, because that's just the last 2 games, and other teams have more games. Maybe I'll revive the project.) I only ask to verify something from a Milwaukee Journal article this morning. The Packers are 4th for most penalties committed (not counting declined penalties) and 1st in most yardage given up. 3rd (count) and most (yardage), but they've also benefited the most (both count-wise and yardage-wise) from penalties. So, in other words, your games must be getting stopped by one penalty or another like every 5 seconds. |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/11/2012 @ 08:14:14 AM |
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Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 10:17:56 PM So, in other words, your games must be getting stopped by one penalty or another like every 5 seconds. That seems about right. In the Seattle game, at one point even the commentators pointed out that there was a penalty on something like 5 or 6 consecutive plays (spread out between the 2 teams) |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/11/2012 @ 08:16:30 AM |
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Alex Wrote - Yesterday @ 08:21:02 PM Nelson has as many drops as Finley. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232 I didn't realize what the numbers actually were for this year. I saw a stat on Finley that since the start of the 2011 season, he leads the entire league with like 17 drops. |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/11/2012 @ 09:32:52 AM |
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Scott Wrote - Today @ 08:14:14 AM Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 10:17:56 PM So, in other words, your games must be getting stopped by one penalty or another like every 5 seconds. That seems about right. In the Seattle game, at one point even the commentators pointed out that there was a penalty on something like 5 or 6 consecutive plays (spread out between the 2 teams) 28 in that game |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/11/2012 @ 09:54:00 AM |
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Do that count declined or offsetting penalties? |
Jeremy - Cube Phenomenoligist 10/11/2012 @ 02:33:57 PM |
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Yes, 2 declined, 2 offsetting, 24 accepted, 245 total yards. |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/11/2012 @ 11:17:48 PM |
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Well, now I just don't know what to believe. Clearly the Vikings are headed to the Super Bowl. |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/12/2012 @ 11:40:29 AM |
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Everyone got last night's game wrong, yet we all get the trophy for being the best. NutCan has a participation trophy! What has this society come to? |
Jeremy - I hate our freedoms 10/12/2012 @ 11:44:11 AM |
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We are all in first place. Edit: Except for Matt and Jon who didn't pick all the games and don't qualify. |
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Jeremy screwed with this at 10/12/2012 12:01:17 pm |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/12/2012 @ 12:07:54 PM |
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Also, I guess consider this the beta release: NFL Penalty Tracker/Log Let me know if you spot any issues. |
Scott - Get Up! Get outta here! Gone! 10/12/2012 @ 12:43:30 PM |
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is there a way to sort on total penalties overall to see which players have committed the most penalties overall in a given year? |
Jeremy - Always thinking of, but never about, the children. 10/12/2012 @ 12:59:21 PM |
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That would be a pretty huge table. Also holding/false starts are far and away the most called penalties, so even if I did a top 25 or something my guess is they'd mostly be offensive lineman and a couple D-Backs. (Thus be pretty mundane.) I'll add that page tonight though and see how feasible it is. |
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Jeremy edited this at 10/12/2012 1:00:33 pm |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/12/2012 @ 01:18:43 PM |
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what does "unluckiest" mean. Is it teams that have are called for a certain penalty more than they benefit from that penalty? |
Jeremy - I hate our freedoms 10/12/2012 @ 01:23:00 PM |
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I think it just means they benefit from the call the least. (Ignoring the teams that haven't benefitted from it at all.) I can look later. | ||
Jeremy screwed with this at 10/12/2012 1:25:16 pm |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/12/2012 @ 01:39:03 PM |
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Problem with that table is that it's a catch 22. It can be somewhat misleading if I dont factor in teams with 0 flags for/against but on the other hand like half the table winds up being "16-31 Teams Tied - [Almost Every Team]" if I allow 0s | ||
Jeremy messed with this at 10/12/2012 1:39:17 pm |
Matt - 3961 Posts 10/12/2012 @ 04:03:10 PM |
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Jeremy Wrote - Today @ 11:44:11 AM We are all in first place. Edit: Except for Matt and Jon who didn't pick all the games and don't qualify. I believe you mean Sarah and Jon. I picked all the games. |
Sarah - How do you use these things? 10/12/2012 @ 08:03:48 PM |
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Matt Wrote - Today @ 04:03:10 PM Jeremy Wrote - Today @ 11:44:11 AM We are all in first place. Edit: Except for Matt and Jon who didn't pick all the games and don't qualify. I believe you mean Sarah and Jon. I picked all the games. Yea, picking all the games before Saturday night are for suckers who don't believe in waiting for all the information on injuries, etc! (or we're lazy) |
Jeremy - Super Chocolate Bear 10/13/2012 @ 02:13:44 PM |
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Scott Wrote - Yesterday @ 12:43:30 PM is there a way to sort on total penalties overall to see which players have committed the most penalties overall in a given year? http://nfl-penalties.nutcan.com/all-players.php?&year=2012 |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/13/2012 @ 03:18:15 PM |
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That does sort of put things into perspective a little bit. For one thing, looking back on past season, the worst offenders are getting called less than once per game. And, I made some comment a while back about Charles Woodson getting called a lot. I'm not sure the exact words that I used, but I implied that while he looks like he should always get called for defensive PI or holding or whatnot, he does get called for a decent amount of penalties. It turns out that in 2010 (which was likely the year I was referring to at the time), he was called for 12 penalties for the year, which amounted to the 4th highest total among all players, so it's not nothing, but it's also not "he's getting called every play" either. So for one of the "worst" offenders, he drew less than 1 flag per game. Very interesting data. | ||
Scott messed with this at 10/13/2012 3:18:55 pm |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/13/2012 @ 08:04:10 PM |
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It was 2011, I suspect because of that San Diego game. |
Jeremy - I hate our freedoms 10/13/2012 @ 08:15:46 PM |
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It was. By my rough count he was 6th in 2011 amongst dbacks, though at the time I brought it up I think he had been called 3 times all year. |
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Jeremy edited this at 10/13/2012 8:41:30 pm |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/14/2012 @ 01:55:10 AM |
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I think the conversation might have been in 2011, but I'm thinking that I was referencing the prior year, not realizing what the current year was showing. But then again, it might have been me combining both years into my internal data set. |
Jeremy - Super Chocolate Bear 10/14/2012 @ 02:46:07 AM |
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Jeremy Wrote - 10/12/2012 @ 01:39:03 PM Problem with that table is that it's a catch 22. It can be somewhat misleading if I dont factor in teams with 0 flags for/against but on the other hand like half the table winds up being "16-31 Teams Tied - [Almost Every Team]" if I allow 0s I decided to change this. Silly looking but easier is probably better. |
Scott - 6225 Posts 10/15/2012 @ 08:27:57 AM |
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Jeremy's quasi-prediction almost came true. The Packers would have won by 25 if it weren't for a blocked punt with 5 minutes left. |
Scott - You're going to have to call your hardware guy. It's not a software issue. 10/15/2012 @ 08:30:28 AM |
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Jeremy Wrote - Yesterday @ 02:46:07 AM Jeremy Wrote - 10/12/2012 @ 01:39:03 PM I decided to change this. Silly looking but easier is probably better.Problem with that table is that it's a catch 22. It can be somewhat misleading if I dont factor in teams with 0 flags for/against but on the other hand like half the table winds up being "16-31 Teams Tied - [Almost Every Team]" if I allow 0s This tool also lacks the ability to count the number of times a penalty WASN'T called when it should have been, like the Packers getting offensive pass interefered about 3 times per game with no calls, and the Packers getting called all the time (like 2 times in 6 games). Add a feature to start tracking the number of times I think a penalty should have been called. Then it will be complete. |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/15/2012 @ 11:55:12 AM |
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Yeah, when will they catch a break on the penalties. |
Sarah - 4691 Posts 10/15/2012 @ 10:43:03 PM |
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Only two teams in the AFC have winning records after the chargers lose this game in ridiculous fashion. |
Alex - 3619 Posts 10/15/2012 @ 11:42:20 PM |
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Jeremy Wrote - 10/10/2012 @ 01:41:03 PM Also, I have no idea what QBR is, but higher is good, and Ponder is soundly beating Rodgers in it, so I declare it the new golden standard of rating quarterbacks. RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS QB PAR QB PAA TOTAL QBR 11 Aaron Rodgers, GB 42.8 8.3 -18.7 5.2 37.6 299 40.5 15.7 66.8 12 Joe Flacco, BAL 40.1 2.4 -10.5 5.6 37.5 268 35.4 13.1 65.7 13 Christian Ponder, MIN 28.6 -1.2 -6.7 3.4 24.0 259 32.9 11.4 64.3 |
Jeremy - 9563 Posts 10/16/2012 @ 07:32:55 PM |
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Clearly it's a total Junk stat. You can't see qbr |
Jon - 3463 Posts 10/17/2012 @ 10:01:09 PM |
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I've seen qbr. Qbr is an abbreviation for Qbert, right? |
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Jon perfected this at 10/17/2012 10:02:18 pm |
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Steelers 23 @ Titans 26
Jon
Had to get out of bed just to pick this game. Stupid Thursday night football.Sarah
I feel like I'm over football, unless the Packers want to redeem themselves at some point this season...Jeremy
The Titans are not a good football team.